Modelos para implementar a vacinação contra dengue

In this work we propose a mathematical approach to estimate the dengue force of infection, the average age of dengue first infection, the optimum age to vaccinate children against dengue in a routine fashion and the optimum age interval to introduce the dengue vaccine in a mass vaccination campaign. The model is based on previously published models for vaccination against other childhood infections, which resulted in actual vaccination programmes in Brazil. The model was applied for three areas of distinct levels of endemicity of the city of Recife in Northeastern State of Pernambuco, Brazil. Our results point to an optimal age to introduce the dengue vaccine in the routine immunization programme at two years of age and an age interval to introduce a mass vaccination between three and 14 years of age.Neste trabalho propomos um modelo matemático para a estimativa da força de infecção, da idade média de primo-infecção, da idade ótima para vacinação de rotina e do intervalo ótimo de cobertura vacina em uma campanha para a introdução da vacina contra a dengue. O modelo baseia-se em publicações anteriores de desenhos de estratégias de vacinação contra outras infecções e que resultaram em estratégias de vacinação no Brasil. O modelo foi aplicado em três áreas com níveis endêmicos de dengue distintos na cidade de Recife, Pernambuco. Nossos resultados apontam para uma idade ótima de vacinação na rotina de dois anos de idade e para um intervalo de vacinação em campanha entre três e 14 anos

Equilibrium analysis of a yellow Fever dynamical model with vaccination.

We propose an equilibrium analysis of a dynamical model of yellow fever transmission in the presence of a vaccine. The model considers both human and vector populations. We found thresholds parameters that affect the development of the disease and the infectious status of the human population in the presence of a vaccine whose protection may wane over time. In particular, we derived a threshold vaccination rate, above which the disease would be eradicated from the human population. We show that if the mortality rate of the mosquitoes is greater than a given threshold, then the disease is naturally (without intervention) eradicated from the population. In contrast, if the mortality rate of the mosquitoes is less than that threshold, then the disease is eradicated from the populations only when the growing rate of humans is less than another threshold; otherwise, the disease is eradicated only if the reproduction number of the infection after vaccination is less than 1. When this reproduction number is greater than 1, the disease will be eradicated from the human population if the vaccination rate is greater than a given threshold; otherwise, the disease will establish itself among humans, reaching a stable endemic equilibrium. The analysis presented in this paper can be useful, both to the better understanding of the disease dynamics and also for the planning of vaccination strategies

Theoretical impact of insecticide-impregnated school uniforms on dengue incidence in Thai children.

BACKGROUND: Children carry the main burden of morbidity and mortality caused by dengue. Children spend a considerable amount of their day at school; hence strategies that reduce human-mosquito contact to protect against the day-biting habits of Aedes mosquitoes at schools, such as insecticide-impregnated uniforms, could be an effective prevention strategy. METHODOLOGY: We used mathematical models to calculate the risk of dengue infection based on force of infection taking into account the estimated proportion of mosquito bites that occur in school and the proportion of school time that children wear the impregnated uniforms. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The use of insecticide-impregnated uniforms has efficacy varying from around 6% in the most pessimistic estimations, to 55% in the most optimistic scenarios simulated. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing contact between mosquito bites and human hosts via insecticide-treated uniforms during school time is theoretically effective in reducing dengue incidence and may be a valuable additional tool for dengue control in school-aged children. The efficacy of this strategy, however, is dependent on the compliance of the target population in terms of proper and consistent wearing of uniforms and, perhaps more importantly, the proportion of bites inflicted by the Aedes population during school time

The friendship paradox in scale-free networks

Our friends have more friends than we do. That is the basis of the friendship paradox. In mathematical terms, the mean number of friends of friends is higher than the mean number of friends. In the present study, we analyzed the relationship between the mean degree of vertices (individuals), , and the mean number of friends of friends, , in scale-free networks with degrees ranging from a minimum degree (k_min) to a maximum degree (k_max). We deduced an expression for - for scale-free networks following a power-law distribution with a given scaling parameter (alpha). Based on this expression, we can quantify how the degree distribution of a scale-free network affects the mean number of friends of friends.Comment: 9 pages, 2 figure

A Note on the Risk of Infections Invading Unaffected Regions.

We present two probabilistic models to estimate the risk of introducing infectious diseases into previously unaffected countries/regions by infective travellers. We analyse two distinct situations, one dealing with a directly transmitted infection (measles in Italy in 2017) and one dealing with a vector-borne infection (Zika virus in Rio de Janeiro, which may happen in the future). To calculate the risk in the first scenario, we used a simple, nonhomogeneous birth process. The second model proposed in this paper provides a way to calculate the probability that local mosquitoes become infected by the arrival of a single infective traveller during his/her infectiousness period. The result of the risk of measles invasion of Italy was of 93% and the result of the risk of Zika virus invasion of Rio de Janeiro was of 22%

Effectiveness of Reversible Contraception in Dog Population Management

Background: Dog fertility depends on human-influenced factors such as sterilization. Uncontrolled fertility can result in unwanted births and overpopulation, which causes problems of public health and animal welfare. Surgical sterilization has been the traditional means of reproduction control but its cost and time can be prohibitive for mass sterilization programs. Non-surgical sterilization alternatives exist, but most of them are reversible and their effectiveness as a population management tool is unknown. To better understand the consequences of reversible contraception, the fertility dynamics was modeled in a hypothetical dog population in a steady-state condition.Materials, Methods & Results: The effect of reversible contraception was simulated using a coupled system of ordinary differential equations. A hypothetical steady-state population of 1000 animals was considered. It was formed by two compartments, one of fertile dogs and the other of infertile dogs. Natality compensated for a fraction of mortality, and the immigration rate compensated for the remaining fraction. The group of immigrant dogs was composed of fertile and infgertile dogs. The dog flow between compartments was given by both the contraception and fertility recovery rate. It was assumed that fertility reversibility in animals of the immigrant group was equal to that of animals already present in the population. Global sensitivities were calculated to assess the uncertainties of fertility dynamics associated with estimation of parameters. In addition, the local sensitivities were calculated to assess the influence of each parameter on fertility dynamics. The treatment effectiveness were expressed in terms of the total number of dogs treated for 20 years by taking a given irreversible contraception rate divided by the total number of dogs treated during the same period, and using the corresponding reversible contraception rate. The global sensitivity analysis consistently indicated a reduction in the number of fertile dogs. The local sensitivity analysis indicated that contraception rate was the most influential parameter, followed by the fertility recovery rate. The fraction of mortality compensated by natality was more influential than the fraction of infertile immigrants. Simulated scenarios indicated that the higher the contraception rate, the greater the difference between the effects of different fertility recovery rates. Variations in the proportion of infertile immigrants minimally changed the number of fertile dogs and the accumulated number of treated dogs. The increase in the fertility recovery rate caused effectiveness to decrease, especially when contraception rates were higher.Discussion: In certain scenarios, reversible contraception can be a viable option for reproduction control. Evaluation of effectiveness of the reversible contraception showed both the importance of duration of the contraceptive effect and the interaction between the contraception and fertility recovery rates. Although the contraception rate is the main determinant of population fertility dynamics, the fertility recovery rate modulates the effect of contraception and determines its viability. Reversible contraception is a viable alternative when loss in effectiveness is compensated by a reduction in costs and ease of application of contraceptive treatments. The lower the contraception rate, the higher the similarity between the effects of reversible and irreversible contraception